Accuracy › Premier League
Graded in public
Premier League prediction accuracy: 34 graded official predictions, 1X2 hit rate, Brier score and the latest graded matches — settled in public.
| Market | Graded calls | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| Win/draw/loss | 34 | 53% (18/34) |
| Over/under 2.5 | 34 | 29% (10/34) |
| Both teams score | 34 | 38% (13/34) |
| Exact score | 34 | 15% (5/34) |
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | Score | Pick | 1X2 | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City | 3–1 | Away win | Missed | 0.974 |
| 7 Nov | Fulham vs Newcastle United | 1–1 | Home win | Missed | 0.782 |
| 7 Nov | Arsenal vs Hull City | 1–0 | Home win | Correct | 0.145 |
| 7 Nov | Leeds United vs Tottenham Hotspur | 1–0 | Away win | Missed | 0.717 |
| 6 Nov | Everton vs Coventry City | 3–1 | Home win | Correct | 0.527 |
| 2 Nov | Newcastle United vs Everton | 0–1 | Home win | Missed | 0.819 |
| 1 Nov | Liverpool vs Arsenal | 0–1 | Home win | Missed | 0.811 |
| 31 Oct | Aston Villa vs Fulham | 1–1 | Home win | Missed | 0.838 |
Data as of 2026-11-08 00:35 UTC · How the model works · Premier League predictions · CSV
Only official Premier League predictions count here — one per selected match, locked one hour before kick-off and settled against the real final score. The hit rate is the share of matches where the most likely outcome happened; the Brier and RPS scores grade the probabilities themselves, so honest calibration beats lucky picks. Sample size is large enough to judge skill.