How our football predictions work
- Strength ratings — Elo-style ratings built from historical results, refreshed per league.
- Form and home advantage — Recent performances and home advantage adjust each side's expected goals.
- Dixon-Coles Poisson model — Expected goals become a probability for every scoreline, corrected for low-score draws, then summed into 1X2, both-teams-to-score and over/under probabilities.
- Explanation layer — The language model only reads the model output and real data and explains it — it never invents numbers.
Limitations
Football is noisy. Injuries, rotation and late news are only partly captured, and early-season ratings are less certain. Treat every number as a probability, not a promise.