FOOTGolden Boot › La Liga
2026-27
La Liga Golden Boot 2026-27: AI race predictions
Who wins the La Liga Golden Boot 2026-27? The official scorer table plus 10,000 AI season simulations: win probabilities, projected final tallies and the record chase — updated after every round.
10 scorers on the official board · probabilities from 10,000 season simulations · kick-off switches to your time zone
| # | Player | Team | Goals | Assists | Apps | Left | Proj. | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raphinha | FC Barcelona | 12 (3P) | 2 | 8 | 4 | 17.6 | 88% |
| 2 | Kylian Mbappé | Real Madrid CF | 9 (2P) | 2 | 9 | 4 | 12.9 | 6% |
| 3 | Lamine Yamal | FC Barcelona | 8 (1P) | 6 | 9 | 4 | 12.0 | 3% |
| 4 | Yassir Zabiri | Real Racing Club de Santander | 8 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 9.8 | <1% |
| 5 | Ante Budimir | CA Osasuna | 7 (4P) | 0 | 9 | 4 | 9.6 | <1% |
| 6 | Sergio Camello | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 7 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 8.9 | <1% |
| 7 | Roberto Fernández | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | 6 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 11.7 | 3% |
| 8 | Fer Niño | Elche CF | 6 (1P) | 0 | 10 | 3 | 7.7 | <1% |
| 9 | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | RC Deportivo La Coruña | 5 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 7.2 | <1% |
| 10 | Álex Baena | Club Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 6.7 | <1% |
All-time single-season record: 50 goals — Lionel Messi, 2011-12.
How the projections work
The Footalytics AI engine simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times. Machine-rated opponent strength weights every remaining fixture, Bayesian calibration keeps small samples honest, injuries and rotation are priced in as uncertainty — refreshed automatically after every round by the same engine that grades every match prediction in public.
Assumptions: scoring rates from this season's official scorer table, opponent strength from team ratings, an appearance probability per game, and no January transfers. Probabilities are model projections, not facts — the table itself is official data.