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Football prediction glossary
Plain-language definitions of football prediction terms: 1X2, over/under 2.5, BTTS, xG, Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Elo, Brier score and more.
TermWin/draw/loss (1X2)The three possible outcomes of a football match, each with a probability that sums to 100% with the other two.TermOver/under 2.5 goalsWhether the match ends with three or more total goals (over) or two or fewer (under).TermBoth teams to score (BTTS)Whether each side scores at least once, regardless of who wins.TermCorrect scoreThe model's probability for one exact final score — the hardest thing in football to call.TermDouble chanceTwo of the three outcomes counted together — its probability is simply the sum of the two.TermExpected goals (xG)The quality of chances a team creates or concedes, expressed as the number of goals those chances are typically worth.TermPoisson modelThe statistical distribution that turns each side's expected goals into a probability for every scoreline.TermDixon-Coles correctionThe standard fix for Poisson's under-rating of 0-0 and 1-1 draws, plus time-weighting of old results.TermElo ratingA strength score updated after every match: beat strong teams and it rises, lose to weak ones and it falls.TermBrier scoreA measure of how well-calibrated probabilities are — lower is better, and it rewards honesty over confidence.TermCalibrationWhether a model's 70% really happens about 70% of the time — the property that separates honest numbers from confident ones.TermHome advantageThe measurable boost a team gets from playing at its own ground — travel, surface, crowd and refereeing effects included.TermFormA team's recent results and performances, weighted as an input to its expected goals.TermHead-to-head (H2H)The record of past meetings between two teams — context worth reading, but weaker than people assume.TermClean sheetA team concedes zero goals in a match — the “no” side of both-teams-to-score.TermGoal differenceGoals scored minus goals conceded — a season-long strength measure and league tiebreaker.