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Football prediction guides
Plain-language guides to AI football predictions: how models work, what probabilities mean, over 2.5 and BTTS explained, and how to judge accuracy claims.
GuideHow AI football predictions workWhat "AI football prediction" really means: a statistical model computes the probabilities, a language model explains them — and every official pick is graded in public.GuideHow accurate are AI football predictions?What accuracy is realistic for football predictions, how the Brier score differs from hit rate, and the red flags behind 90% claims — with our own public record linked.GuideWin/draw/loss probabilities explained (1X2)What 1X2 probabilities mean, how to read 55% vs 90%, why draws are the hardest call, and how to compare two matches' uncertainty honestly.GuideOver 2.5 goals explainedWhat over/under 2.5 goals means, how a Poisson model prices it, which league averages to expect, and how to read today's probabilities.GuideBoth teams to score (BTTS) explainedWhat BTTS means, what drives it, how the model computes it from the scoreline matrix, and why it is close to a coin flip in most leagues.GuideThe Poisson model behind football predictionsHow the Poisson distribution and the Dixon-Coles correction turn expected goals into scoreline probabilities — the maths behind every Footalytics number.
Put the guides to work
Every concept here is live on the site: today's fixtures, the market pages and the public accuracy dashboard.