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England host Croatia in the UEFA Nations League on Thu 12 Nov · 19:45 UTC. England sit 2th on 9 points after 4 games; Croatia are 3th on 3.
The official Footalytics prediction for this match is published closer to kick-off (24–48 h before, refreshed in the final six hours and locked one hour out). Until then, ask the AI for a live read — it computes probabilities on demand from the same model.
Home advantage matters here: England sit 2th on 9 points and will expect to make home form count against the 3th-placed visitors.
Under the numbers: strength ratings, recent form and home advantage give each side an expected-goals estimate; a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model turns those into win/draw/loss and scoreline probabilities. The AI explains the result in plain language — it never invents the numbers.
Table snapshot
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | England | 4 | 3-0-1 | +11 | 9 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1-0-3 | -10 | 3 |
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Thursday 12 November
Kick-off times in UTC.