FOOTComparisons › FiveThirtyEight SPI
The benchmark transparent model — shut down in April 2023
Footalytics vs FiveThirtyEight SPI
What FiveThirtyEight SPI does well, what it does not publish, and where Footalytics takes a different approach — stated factually, with every Footalytics claim verifiable on the public accuracy dashboard.
Side by side
| Footalytics | FiveThirtyEight SPI | |
|---|---|---|
| Methodology | Published in full (methodology page) | Not formally published |
| Public graded record | Yes — dashboard + downloadable CSV, misses included | Limited or none |
| Explanation layer | AI chat grounded in the model's numbers | Varies (stats tables or editorial) |
| Odds / betting content | None — no odds anywhere | No odds content; it was journalism, not tipping. |
| Free tier | 3 predictions on sign-up | Was free (media-funded) |
| Paid tier | Credit packs from $10 · subscriptions from $18/mo | — |
About FiveThirtyEight SPI
FiveThirtyEight's Club Soccer Predictions (SPI) was the gold standard for transparent football forecasting: published methodology, open historical data, match and season probabilities. ESPN parent Disney's 2023 layoffs ended it, and the interactive tool was never restored.
The best-documented model in the industry: offensive/defensive ratings from 550,000+ historical matches, a Poisson matrix for scorelines, off-adjusted goals, market-value priors and 20,000 "hot" season simulations. Everything was published.
- 1X2 probabilities per match
- Season simulations (title, top-four, relegation)
- Match quality and importance ratings
Where Footalytics differs
● Alive: FiveThirtyEight's tool is gone; Footalytics runs, updates daily and grades itself in public.
● A chat, not a static table: follow up on any number (why so high on the draw? what changed after the midweek game?) and the answer cites the same underlying model output.
● Same spirit: published methodology, honest small-sample flags, no certainty-selling.
FAQ
What happened to FiveThirtyEight soccer predictions?
Shut down in April 2023 after layoffs; the domain redirects and the interactive forecasts never returned. Their historical CSVs are still circulated by analysts. Footalytics carries the same transparency playbook forward as a live product.
Is there a FiveThirtyEight alternative for football?
For published methodology plus a public graded record, that is exactly Footalytics' positioning: the method page explains the model, and every official pick is settled against the real score on the dashboard.
Why did FiveThirtyEight shut down?
Business, not quality: Disney cut the newsroom. The lesson for prediction products is that ad-funded or media-owned models can vanish overnight — an independent product with a paid plan has a longer runway.
Check the record, then try it
Every number on this site is graded in public. Start free with 3 predictions.