FOOTGlossary › Brier score
Definition
Brier score
A measure of how well-calibrated probabilities are — lower is better, and it rewards honesty over confidence.
Why it beats hit rate
Hit rate only counts whether the top pick landed. The Brier score scores the probabilities themselves: saying 70% and being right 70% of the time beats saying 90% and being right 60% — even though the second wins more picks.
Reading ours
Random guessing on 1X2 scores about 0.667. Our rolling Brier scores sit on the public accuracy dashboard next to hit rates, per league and market.
FAQ
What is a good Brier score in football?
Meaningfully below 0.667 for 1X2 — the strongest published baselines sit around 0.19-0.21 per match in binary framings; compare like with like.
Can a model game the Brier score?
Only by being genuinely well-calibrated — that is the point of using it.