FOOTGlossary › Expected goals (xG)
Definition
Expected goals (xG)
The quality of chances a team creates or concedes, expressed as the number of goals those chances are typically worth.
What it measures
Every shot has a scoring probability based on location, type and context; xG sums those into one number. A team with 1.8 xG created chances typically worth 1.8 goals — whether or not it scored that day.
How Footalytics uses it
Our model estimates each side's expected goals from strength ratings, form and home advantage, then feeds those estimates into the Poisson scoreline matrix. Published predictions show the xG pair next to the probabilities.
FAQ
Is xG the same as goals?
No — it is the value of the chances, not the outcome. Over a season they converge; in a single match they often differ.
Why does xG matter for predictions?
It separates sustainable performance from luck: a team scoring way above its xG is usually due a correction.