FOOTGlossary › Poisson model
Definition
Poisson model
The statistical distribution that turns each side's expected goals into a probability for every scoreline.
Why it fits football
Goals are rare, roughly independent events with a stable average — exactly what the Poisson distribution describes. Given an expected 1.6 goals, it outputs the probability of scoring 0, 1, 2, 3…
How it becomes a prediction
Apply Poisson to both teams and multiply: P(home scores i) × P(away scores j) fills the matrix cell for scoreline i-j. Summing cells yields 1X2, over/under, BTTS and exact-score probabilities from one consistent object.
FAQ
Who first used Poisson for football?
Analyses go back to Morley's 1958 study of World Cup scoring; it has been the standard starting point ever since.
Is plain Poisson enough?
It under-rates low-score draws — which is why the Dixon-Coles correction exists.