FOOTGlossary › Dixon-Coles correction
Definition
Dixon-Coles correction
The standard fix for Poisson's under-rating of 0-0 and 1-1 draws, plus time-weighting of old results.
What it fixes
Raw Poisson systematically predicts too few low-score draws. Dixon and Coles (1997) adjust the joint distribution near low scores and down-weight stale matches, which matters because a result from four months ago says less than last week's.
Our implementation
Footalytics runs the Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson on per-league strength ratings and recent form — the same distribution that produces every probability on the site.
FAQ
Why do naive models underrate draws?
Low-score ties cluster more than independent Poisson goals would predict; the correction adds the missing correlation.
Do all serious models use it?
It is the standard refinement in the academic literature and a common baseline in industry.