FOOTGlossary › Calibration
Definition
Calibration
Whether a model's 70% really happens about 70% of the time — the property that separates honest numbers from confident ones.
The definition
A forecast is calibrated when, across all the times it said 70%, the outcome happened about 70% of the time — same for 30%, 50%, 90%. Calibration is measurable and it is the standard we grade ourselves against in public.
Why it matters more than hit rate
Anyone can win a streak. Only calibration tells you whether tomorrow's numbers can be trusted — which is why the dashboard shows Brier scores alongside hit rates.
FAQ
How do you test calibration?
Bucket predictions by stated probability and compare with realized frequencies over many matches.
Does high hit rate imply calibration?
No — a model can be lucky. Calibration survives luck because it averages over many predictions.