FOOTGlossary › Elo rating
Definition
Elo rating
A strength score updated after every match: beat strong teams and it rises, lose to weak ones and it falls.
How it works
Borrowed from chess, Elo keeps a number per team and exchanges points after each result — the winner takes from the loser, sized by how unexpected the outcome was. Over a season it tracks true strength better than raw points.
In our model
Elo-style ratings built from historical results are refreshed per league and seed each side's expected goals; recent form and home advantage adjust from there.
FAQ
Why not just use the league table?
Tables ignore schedule strength and carry early-season noise; ratings update continuously and compare across matchups.
When are ratings least reliable?
Early in a season, after promotion/relegation and long breaks — we flag the increased uncertainty.