FOOTGlossary › Form
Definition
Form
A team's recent results and performances, weighted as an input to its expected goals.
What counts as form
Typically the last five to ten matches: points, goals and underlying numbers. Our model uses recent performance to nudge the Elo baseline up or down.
Its limits
Form is noisy: small samples overreact to a lucky win or an unlucky loss, and early-season form says the least. That is why it adjusts the rating rather than replacing it.
FAQ
How many matches count as form?
Most research lands on the last 5-10; beyond that you are re-measuring the rating itself.
Does a 5-game winning streak guarantee anything?
Nothing. It raises the expected-goals estimate slightly; the match still has a full probability distribution.