FOOTGlossary › Home advantage
Definition
Home advantage
The measurable boost a team gets from playing at its own ground — travel, surface, crowd and refereeing effects included.
How big is it?
Historically worth roughly a third of a goal per match across the top leagues — enough to move a pick from 40% to near 50%. It shrank in empty-stadium eras and varies by league and team.
In the model
Home advantage adjusts each side's expected goals before the Poisson matrix is computed — which is why the same two teams get different numbers depending on the venue.
FAQ
Is home advantage shrinking?
It has trended down over decades and dipped during crowd-less periods, but it remains a real, measurable input.
Do cup neutrals have home advantage?
No — the model only applies it for genuine home fixtures.